"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever
may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passions, they
cannot alter the state of facts and evidence." - John Adams (US
President, 1735 – 1826).
“There is nothing more necessary than truth, and
in comparison with it everything else has only secondary value.”
- Friedrich Nietzsche (German Philosopher and Writer, 1844 - 1900)
Messrs Jonathan and Obama |
In 1885, the ‘fate’ of
Africa was decided by a gathering of world’s European powers in Berlin,
Germany. In the conference, an area in West Africa (which would later become
Nigeria), was handed over to Great Britain, like a piece of chocolate in a
birthday party.
Following the handover,
Britain exercised her rule by establishing her authority over the northern and
southern protectorates.
Consequently, in 1914,
Britain through the then governor of northern region, Lord Luggard amalgamated
the northern and southern protectorates, without the people’s consent. He later
became the first Governor-General of the Nigerian Protectorate. His wife, Flora
Shaw, also coined the name Nigeria.
The Beginning of The End
Like a house built on a
faulty foundation, analysts believe that the amalgamation of the two
protectorates, which was for the benefits of the imperialists, was like the
mixing of oil and water.
World renowned writer,
Chinua Achebe, insists, “If the Berlin conference sealed Nigeria’s fate, then
the amalgamation of the southern and northern protectorates inextricably
complicated her destiny.” (There was a Country. 2012).
In 1974, apparently
realizing their mistakes, Sir James Robertson, the last colonial Governor
General confessed 14 years after he left Nigeria that Britain (in amalgamating
Nigeria) underestimated the power of ethnicity.
Quoting copiously from his
1956 diary, Sir James noted:
“The general outlook of
the people (north) is so different from those in the southern Nigeria as to
give them practically nothing in common.”
Comparing two European
countries and Nigerian ethnic nationalities, he noted in his diary, “There is
less difference between an Englishman and Italian, both of whom have a common
civilization based on Greek and Roman foundations and on Christianity, than
between a Muslim villager in Sokoto, Kano, or Katsina and an Igbo, Ijaw or Kalabari.”
Posing a rhetorical question
on Nigeria’s future, Sir James asked, “How can any feeling of common purpose of
nationality be built up between people whose culture, religion and mode of
living is completely different?”
(Prof. Omo Omoruyi, The
Origin of Nigeria: God of Justice Not Associated with an Unjust Political Order. 2002).
Little wonder, the late Yoruba leader, Chief Obafemi
Awolowo, lamented: “Nigeria is not a nation. It is a mere geographical
expression. There are no “Nigerians” in the same sense as there are ‘English,’
‘Welsh,’ or ‘French.’ The word ‘Nigerian’ is merely a distinctive appellation
to distinguish those who live within the boundaries of Nigeria from those who
do not.” (In Path to Nigerian Freedom. 1947)
Confirming our fears, Sir
Ahmadu Bello, the Premier of the Northern Region, and leader of the ruling
Northern People’s Congress (NPC) party, 12 days after our Independence, said:
“This new nation called Nigeria should be an
estate of our great grandfather Othman Dan Fodio. We must ruthlessly prevent a change of power. We use the minorities in the
north as willing tools and the south as a conquered territory and never allow
them to rule over us and never allow them to have control over their future.”
– (Parrot Newspaper October 12, 1960).
With these emerging
revelations, you do not need to ponder why there is always one form of killing
or the other in the north as well as the issue of religion mixed with politics.
RELATED: History of forcible conversion to Islam in Nigeria
The fact is there may never be an end to these killings, although they can be converted from one form to another. Yes, the killings can be converted from the 1966 pogroms, religious riots, Maitasine, post-election violence, Jos killings, Ansaru killings to Boko Haram bombings etc. I term this the Law of Conservation of Killings. Just as we have in Physics the Law of Conservation of Energy.
RELATED: History of forcible conversion to Islam in Nigeria
The fact is there may never be an end to these killings, although they can be converted from one form to another. Yes, the killings can be converted from the 1966 pogroms, religious riots, Maitasine, post-election violence, Jos killings, Ansaru killings to Boko Haram bombings etc. I term this the Law of Conservation of Killings. Just as we have in Physics the Law of Conservation of Energy.
2015 Election and the US Predictions
A lot of articles have
been written on the alleged United States National Intelligence Council
predictions that Nigeria will likely disintegrate on or before 2015. While the
"unpatriots" believe the alleged “doomsday” prediction, the
patriots dismissed it as an unfounded rumor, insisting the US government never
made such a statement, rather that the statement hinged on a mere assumption of
“if s’ ” during a conference on sub-Saharan Africa in January 2005.
However, beyond the
alleged predictions, the event analyses and the current internal wrangling in
the polity over the 2015 election, you do not need a rocket science to decipher
a bleak future for Nigeria if the trend is not nipped in the bud.
Thus while Nigeria was
yet to recover from the the 2011 post-election violence precipitated by the
pre-election threats from some northern leaders who promised to make Nigeria
ungovernable if Jonathan contests the election, more damning threats are
coming from the same quarters over the 2015 debacle.
For instance, smarting
from his 2011 electoral defeat, General Muhammad Buhari, an opposition leader
from the north, who contested against President Jonathan, warned of an
impending doom in 2015. “Buhari who painted a gory picture of Nigeria as that
of a hound and a monkey engaged in a battle for survival said, ‘God willing, by
2015, something will happen. They either conduct a free and fair election or
they go a very disgraceful way.’ ”
Continuing, he said, ‘If
what happened in 2011 (alleged rigging) should again happen in 2015, by the
grace of God, the dog and the baboon would all be soaked in blood.’” (Vanguard, May 15,
2012).
Also, Alhaji Lawal Kaita
said:
“We hear rumours all
over that Jonathan are planning to contest in 2015. Well, the north is going to
be prepared if the country remains one…That is, if the country remains one, we
are going to fight for it. If not, everybody can go his way” – (LEADERSHIP,
March 29, 2012).
Do we need any further
proof of impending crisis?
In the same vein, the
President’s men from the Niger Delta are not relenting in their efforts to ensure
a second mandate for their kinsman in 2015.
An ex-militant warlord,
Asari Dokubo, spoke to newsmen and said:
“I called this briefing
because of events that are unfolding in the polity. Recently, the Special
Adviser to the President on Niger Delta, Mr. Kingsely Kuku, made a statement in
the United States of America, that the peace being enjoyed in the Niger Delta
will not be guaranteed if President Goodluck Jonathan is not returned as
President of Nigeria in 2015. I want to go on to say that, there will be no
peace, not only in the Niger Delta, but everywhere if Goodluck Jonathan is not
president by 2015, except God takes his life, which we don’t pray for.” – (Vanguard May 05, 2013)
World Powers
Intervention on Boko Haram
The concern and current military intervention of world powers on the Boko Haram insurgency in northeast Nigeria are being viewed in some corners as a prelude or precursor to Nigeria’s disintegration.
It will be recalled that, amongst other forms of criminality and crime
against humanity perpetrated by Boko Haram Islamic sect, the world was enraged
by the kidnap of over 200 female pupils in a High School at Chibok town in Borno
State, on 14th April, 2014 by Boko Haram. Consequently, Nigeria’s President
Goodluck Jonathan solicited and received an offer for help from US, Britain,
France, China, and Israel to rescue the abducted girls
Ironically, some forces in the north are clandestinely protesting against the foreign assistance by these nations insisting that they are on a selfish mission to Nigeria such as the balkanization or dismemberment of the country into many nations. They quickly pointed out that the coincidence of US intervention and their 2015 break-up prediction for Nigeria is suspicious. Articles have also been written on the internet and social media insinuating that Boko Haram is a covert operation of the US Central Intelligence Agency.
RELATED: US Strategizes on Boko Haram
Ironically, some forces in the north are clandestinely protesting against the foreign assistance by these nations insisting that they are on a selfish mission to Nigeria such as the balkanization or dismemberment of the country into many nations. They quickly pointed out that the coincidence of US intervention and their 2015 break-up prediction for Nigeria is suspicious. Articles have also been written on the internet and social media insinuating that Boko Haram is a covert operation of the US Central Intelligence Agency.
RELATED: US Strategizes on Boko Haram
Religious/Spiritual
Angle
Since Nigeria is a
religious country; the contributions of the Spiritual men in the affairs of the
nation cannot be overemphasized. For example, I recalled reading Prophet T.B.
Joshua’s message in March 2011 concerning the coming April 2011 general
elections then. He revealed that over 50 containers of weapons have been
imported into the country months before then, to be used during the April 2011
elections by party thugs. He also revealed that there will be bloodshed in a
particular region of the country if a preferred candidate did not win the election.
Well all that happened
after the election is now history.
Now another Prophet,
Apostle Johnson Suleiman, who is notable for his accurate predictions has
warned Nigeria of an impending doomed if Jonathan contests the 2015 general
elections. These where contained in his January 2013 predictions for
Nigeria. No matter how bizarre this prophecy may sound, Suleiman has always
made accurate predictions in the past concerning the country and individuals.
Panacea for Nigeria’s
Unity
Indeed nobody can
arrogate himself the absolute knowledge for Nigeria’s unity and development,
except God. However, in my opinion unless Nigeria reverts back to its regional
governments and entrench true federalism then ideas preventing a break-up may
just be like tales by moonlight.
Though some
people are of the opinion that Nigeria's problem is not ethnicism,
tribalism, but corruption, leadership etc., we forgot that what kills an
AIDS patient is not the malaria that attacked him but the HIV virus that
destroyed his immunity.
That is why it is
necessary that we must discuss the basis of our unity and how we are going
to inter-live with one another. A National Conference or Sovereign National
Conference, whichever name you call it, must be encouraged by all, provided that
no legislative, executive or judicial powers will usurp the decisions of the
people.
Though hopeful, I am not
strictly optimistic that the ongoing National Conference in Abuja will do the
magic. Because, following its constitution, I view it as a political tool
employed by Mr. President to extinguish the agitation of the opposition forces
in the north over his 2015 presidential ambition.
Nevertheless, only time
will determine the direction the Nigerian pendulum swings. Till then I will remain
a spectator.
Chike Nnamani, a public
affairs analyst, writes from Abuja, Nigeria.
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