2027: Tinubu, Opposition, and the Nash Equilibrium

 ...Factors that may determine the 2027 winner

By Chike Nnamani 

In 1950, a 22-year-old American mathematician, John Forbes Nash Jr., submitted a PhD thesis on Non-Cooperative Games to Princeton's Department of Mathematics. His thesis, part of which was later published in 1951, contained an idea that would revolutionize: "Political strategy, economics, evolutionary biology, artificial intelligence, and algorithmic systems."

It is the foundation of Game Theory. And this concept would later earn him a Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 1994. 

Known as the Nash Equilibrium, the theory, among other things, gave insight into: How nations negotiate in war; and why animals sometimes cooperate instead of competing against each other. It may have given insight into why rival animals like hyena and leopards sometimes cooperate to savour their prey together - instead of their usual antagonistic fighting which may give room for higher carnivores like lions to steal their meal.

The Nash equilibrium is that "sweet spot" where neither of the players benefits by changing their own strategy unless the other does too. It is the strategy that the opposition parties need today in Nigeria to defeat Tinubu in 2027. Like animals sometimes, they need to cooperate, align, merge, or be in coalition, if they want to take over power in 2027.

This concept was what the APC unwittingly applied in 2013 to snatch power from the PDP in 2015 at a time when it was almost impossible to defeat an incumbent President or dethrone the largest political party in Africa, PDP. In those days, it was almost unlikely for the likes of "Tinubus" to work together with the likes of "Buharis" to achieve an aim. But they did; and it achieved a result.

The greatest desire of Aso Rock now is to see that there is no form of coalition achieved by the opposition parties. Yes! In June 2023, during a political analysis at the TVC news, an insider and member of a think tank group formed by "Jagaban" for the 2023 election, revealed that throughout the electioneering campaign their only prayer was that there won't be a coalition between the PDP led by Atiku, Labour Party led by Peter Obi, and/or NNPP led by Kwankwaso, for that was the ONLY factor - as produced by their models - that could have guaranteed the defeat of Tinubu/APC. And he was right! APC only polled a little over 8 million votes to defeat the second being Atiku who polled over 7 million votes, while Obi polled over 6 million votes despite alleged voter-intimidation of his supporters in some places.

Imagine if there was an understanding between the PDP and Labour Party? It could have resulted in over 13 million votes thus beating the ruling APC by all means irrespective of whatever INEC does.

Having said that, the current issue will be who should be projected as the general candidate of the combined coalition. But that is beyond the scope of this write up now. However, in my opinion I would advise that, as a highly polarized and pluralized nation, the current power rotation should be sustained in choosing an opposition candidate. For that was the basis the North moved against Jonathan in 2015. Therefore, Atiku or any northerner should take a break from the 2027 Presidency. After all, the entire country voted for him in 2019 to complete Buhari's tenure but he allowed it to slide from him.

It is in view of this, that any popular southerner from the opposition should be projected and supported by the North as the 2027 candidate to complete the remaining term of the South.

Finally, it should be noted that the clamour for a change of power should be for a psychological placebo only - not that it will bring about any meaningful change - as the problem of Nigeria is foundational. And unless we address this fundamental issue, all our dreams of a new Nigeria will be a tale by moonlight.

©Chike Nnamani ✍️