2023: The Beginning of Birth-Pains

“Fool me once, shame to you; fool me twice, shame to me.” (Chinese Proverb).

“First mugu no be mugu; second mugu na him be the proper mugu.” (Warri Proverb).

The unbridled quests and insatiable lusts for power can turn a once political maestro into a scorned and derided fellow. With what happened to the lion of Bourdilon at the inception of this administration, one would think the Jagaban of Lagos will discreetly work against the second term victory of the herdsman, and damn the consequences. Unfortunately, he trusted in his political wizardry.

In 2018, I had written a piece entitled: The Rise and Fall of a god of Men where I, among other things, revealed that the famous phrase captured in Buhari’s maiden address in 2015 upon his swearing-in at the Eagle Sqaure, which says, “I Belong To Everybody, And I Belonged To Nobody” was targeted at Tinubu, and NOT Nigerians. That was the beginning of his birth pains.

However despite all the humiliation meted out to him in that first tenure, just like a prostitute who is always needed for sex and thereafter abandoned, Tinubu was recalled back at the eve of that administration – to help engineer the second term of the herdsman - especially as the wave of Atiku/Obi came threatening.

With this, he marshaled out his once political wizardry. Did and undo. Installed and uninstalled. And nodded his head in admiration, that atleast - with his men in strategic places now, the fate that befell him in the first tenure will not befall him again. “Affliction shall not rise the second time,” he must have insisted.

But he forgot that with our obnoxious constitution in place, even if your men are in all the spheres of government but still having an undemocratic element as number 1 in power, your case is as good as not having a one.

A little signal of an impending rejuvenation of birth-pains came immediately after they won at the Presidential election tribunal, when Osibanjo was stripped of powers in his statutory agencies, as well as the rumored impeachment and corruption probe.

Now I have listened to various arguments on Osibanjo’s current plight at the villa, the one I found most amusing is the insinuation that his current travails has nothing to do with 2023 permutations, but on corruption allegations (Smiles). When did Buhari’s government started probing APC members for corruption?

I want to say this: the real birth-pains will come immediately after the Supreme Court judgment on the Presidential Election Tribunal. It is going to be catastrophic and venomic.

Osibanjo is persecuted today because of Tinubu’s ambition. Many more will still go down because of Tinubu's amibition, just like the suspended Head of Service. The cabal knew that when Tinubu must have been intimidated out of the race in future, he might secretly front Osibanjo, hence the current persecution of the latter. The North is not yet done with power.

On why Tinubu would stuck his head to work for Buharis second tenure despite all that was done to him in the first tenure underscores his insatiable lusts for power.

Infact, one of the few failures I ‘ve had in my political analytic ministry was the prediction that Tinubu would strike a LAST MINUTE deal with Atiku, regain his SouthWest control, and undo Buhari’s presidency. But I was wrong.

No wonder Bukola Saraki insisted Tinubu told him that “even if Buhari is on stretcher, that he (Tinubu) will still work for him in 2019 so it could reach his own turn in 2023 to become President. Chai! This dream might end up like a codeine-induced dream.

Anyway, the plethora of events that will herald the Supreme Court judgment in November with respect to the 2023 permutations will prove if Tinubu has indeed been fooled the second time by the north – hence making him the proper mugu.

Chike Nnamani is a writer and public affairs analyst